The FDI inflows in India has been increasing and the government has initialised the second generation reforms (after 1991 initiative) that allowed FDI on large scale. The limit has been extended to $ 20 billion by the finance ministry so far funds about $ 10 billion has been invested and the major chunk is in retail sector.
FDI is recognised an important driver for economic growth and made Sensex kiss 20000 (approx) in a short duration. But this is what is worrying me unless and until the government & corporates utilize these funds in safe bets or ventures the economy is safe.
Now FDI has invested with some lock in period and the true number of yrs for lock in period is never disclosed as per policies. Why does any investor has lock in period the answer is he can redeem his investment and profits (interest earned) after few years, in short they are here to invest and withdraw their stake at the later stage when they need them back.
When the demand for services and goods manufactured in India reaches a saturation point the demand falls gradually. The fall is identified by large industries and they gradually reduce the production decrease the stakes. This is the point where I see Sensex at 26000 - 27000 few yrs from now and rupee appreciates at Rs. 41 /- (approx) against $ (this is demand for $).
Now the panic starts spreading amongst medium, small producers, investors, creditors and so they start liquidating suddenly demand of rupees is seen in the market every stakeholder at this juncture is liquidating which pulls Sensex down.
All this brings recession along, people are jobless, no demand seen in market.
Then FII's (Foreign institutional investors) start investing in the economy create demand and pull the country out of recession suddenly demand of $ arises rupee depreciates and the figure of Rs. 49 /- (approx) is seen again.
China with its real estate bubble should lead to recession some time in 2015-2016. The rate at which it has grown since few years shall find hardly any nation to bailout.
Be prepare for the recession in 2015-2016 dont worry that is the correct time to invest in socks since they would be cheaply available and expected returns are 500% over later few yrs.
Golden rule says "Buy cheap & Sell high"
Njoy making money.
KHP
makin love with eco & fin inv
Understand your money's worth..... An average ordinary guy persuading MBA and aspire to be a chartered engineer.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Thursday, October 14, 2010
China's real estate bubble
Getting commodities out of the ground, building empty shopping malls, ghost towns, and bridges to nowhere requires a lot of equipment. Industrial goods companies benefited tremendously from Chinese demand. In the past, those were very cyclical companies, and it seems like this time they almost didn’t have a normal cycle. They declined but then came back very fast because the demand came back very fast, and a lot of that demand came from China.
Now what are the consequences of this. Spending large amt of cash on building this assets which are not utilized effectively will lead to property bubble. now with the bubble burst the property rates fall and so the value of the initial investment starts diminishing weakening the economy.
Will this make China to pass the point of no return. Well I bet 50% on that (considering the historic collapse of other economic giants). But what if China manages to survive it will force to create new economic principles.
Kuldeep H. P
Making love with eco & fin
Now what are the consequences of this. Spending large amt of cash on building this assets which are not utilized effectively will lead to property bubble. now with the bubble burst the property rates fall and so the value of the initial investment starts diminishing weakening the economy.
Will this make China to pass the point of no return. Well I bet 50% on that (considering the historic collapse of other economic giants). But what if China manages to survive it will force to create new economic principles.
Kuldeep H. P
Making love with eco & fin
Thursday, October 7, 2010
China’s currency manipulation: Flipping off America
China is disrespecting America.
The Asian giant is an international trade outlaw, and U.S. manufacturers and workers are its crime victims.
China illegally subsidizes its export industries and unlawfully manipulates its currency. That kills U.S. industry and destroys U.S. jobs. Earlier this year, the Obama administration asked China nicely to allow its currency value to float up naturally on international markets. On June 19, China said it would.
And then it didn’t.
That’s flipping the bird at America.
Before China’s June 19 promise, bipartisan groups of lawmakers in the U.S. House and Senate proposed legislation that would force the U.S. Treasury Department to even the score and to call China out for what it is: a currency manipulator. Hearings on the bills are being conducted this week.
Pass the legislation. It’s time for America to flip the bird back.
Negotiation and threats have failed to produce a sustained, substantial currency float by China. Now, the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is undervalued by as much as 40 percent, a figure accepted by conservatives like C. Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Even the International Monetary Fund managing director said the currency is undervalued.
China simply denied it. In March, the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, said he did not believe the renminbi was undervalued. That’s flipping off the world.
It works like this: China prints renminbi to buy billions of U.S. dollars, which makes them appear more desired and valuable, and the renminbi, by contrast, less valuable. That undervaluation of the renminbi acts as a subsidy for Chinese exports, artificially making them as much as 40 percent cheaper when sold in the U.S. Conversely, it acts as a tax of as much as 40 percent on American-made goods sold in China.
This dynamic contributed significantly to the rise of manufacturing in China. Earlier this year, China surged past Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy. And it contributes significantly to America’s massive trade deficit. The gap in July was $42.8 billion, more than half of which -- $25.9 billion -- was a result of trade with one country – China.
China’s rapid economic growth has ended poverty for millions of its workers. Here in the United States, however, China’s flouting of international trade law is destroying the lives of millions of workers. The Economic Policy Institute estimates that 2.4 million American jobs have been lost or displaced since 2001 as a result of the trade deficit with China. American workers celebrate their Chinese counterparts’ improved quality of life, but they condemn the government of China for accomplishing that with beggar-thy-neighbor trade practices.
Earlier this year, it briefly looked like threats would prompt China to act. In March, a bipartisan coalition of U.S. Senators introduced legislation specifying the factors necessary to label a country as a currency manipulator and detailing American reprisals. And in April, the Treasury Department delayed its report identifying countries that manipulate currency rates, suggesting that it was ready to take on China.
China appeared to respond to that pressure in June. It announced it would allow the renminbi to float toward its real value on the open market. The Treasury Department backed off, omitting China from its list of currency manipulators in July.
China then permitted the value of the renminbi to rise less than one percent. One percent. When it’s as much as 40 percent undervalued. That’s flipping the bird at America. Big time.
Still, America didn’t react.
On Aug. 25, the Commerce Department announced 14 new measures to crack down on trade violations such as ending certain exemptions from duties.
It did not, however, mention currency manipulation.
Dan DiMicco, CEO at Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker, said the 14 measures are important, but the problem with China won’t be resolved until the United States takes on currency undervaluation. Here’s what he said:
“As long as we continue to let them get away with it, they’ll keep doing it.”
Six days later, in a trade case filed by the U.S. Aluminum Extrusions Fair Trade Committee, a coalition of domestic manufacturers of aluminum extrusions and the USW, the Commerce Department again squirmed out of dealing with currency manipulation.
Commerce imposed import duties on Chinese aluminum companies because China unfairly subsidized $514 million in aluminum exports to the U.S. in 2009. But Commerce refused to investigate the Fair Trade Committee’s evidence that China’s currency manipulation functions as an additional illegal export subsidy.
Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, a sponsor of currency manipulation legislation, said afterward:
“The Commerce Department made its finding while still managing to ignore the elephant in the room, which is China’s currency manipulation.”
Commerce and Treasury have decided the proper response to China flipping off America is averting their eyes. See no evil.
Yesterday Japan followed China’s lead. It bought dollars and sold yen, decreasing the value of yen and increasing the value of dollars. This, the New York Times explained, was “a bid to protect its export-led economy.” That’s exactly what China is doing.
It’s a very public show of contempt for international regulations and for American citizens.
Normally, Americans don’t respond passively to contempt. Be normal, America.
The Asian giant is an international trade outlaw, and U.S. manufacturers and workers are its crime victims.
China illegally subsidizes its export industries and unlawfully manipulates its currency. That kills U.S. industry and destroys U.S. jobs. Earlier this year, the Obama administration asked China nicely to allow its currency value to float up naturally on international markets. On June 19, China said it would.
And then it didn’t.
That’s flipping the bird at America.
Before China’s June 19 promise, bipartisan groups of lawmakers in the U.S. House and Senate proposed legislation that would force the U.S. Treasury Department to even the score and to call China out for what it is: a currency manipulator. Hearings on the bills are being conducted this week.
Pass the legislation. It’s time for America to flip the bird back.
Negotiation and threats have failed to produce a sustained, substantial currency float by China. Now, the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is undervalued by as much as 40 percent, a figure accepted by conservatives like C. Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Even the International Monetary Fund managing director said the currency is undervalued.
China simply denied it. In March, the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, said he did not believe the renminbi was undervalued. That’s flipping off the world.
It works like this: China prints renminbi to buy billions of U.S. dollars, which makes them appear more desired and valuable, and the renminbi, by contrast, less valuable. That undervaluation of the renminbi acts as a subsidy for Chinese exports, artificially making them as much as 40 percent cheaper when sold in the U.S. Conversely, it acts as a tax of as much as 40 percent on American-made goods sold in China.
This dynamic contributed significantly to the rise of manufacturing in China. Earlier this year, China surged past Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy. And it contributes significantly to America’s massive trade deficit. The gap in July was $42.8 billion, more than half of which -- $25.9 billion -- was a result of trade with one country – China.
China’s rapid economic growth has ended poverty for millions of its workers. Here in the United States, however, China’s flouting of international trade law is destroying the lives of millions of workers. The Economic Policy Institute estimates that 2.4 million American jobs have been lost or displaced since 2001 as a result of the trade deficit with China. American workers celebrate their Chinese counterparts’ improved quality of life, but they condemn the government of China for accomplishing that with beggar-thy-neighbor trade practices.
Earlier this year, it briefly looked like threats would prompt China to act. In March, a bipartisan coalition of U.S. Senators introduced legislation specifying the factors necessary to label a country as a currency manipulator and detailing American reprisals. And in April, the Treasury Department delayed its report identifying countries that manipulate currency rates, suggesting that it was ready to take on China.
China appeared to respond to that pressure in June. It announced it would allow the renminbi to float toward its real value on the open market. The Treasury Department backed off, omitting China from its list of currency manipulators in July.
China then permitted the value of the renminbi to rise less than one percent. One percent. When it’s as much as 40 percent undervalued. That’s flipping the bird at America. Big time.
Still, America didn’t react.
On Aug. 25, the Commerce Department announced 14 new measures to crack down on trade violations such as ending certain exemptions from duties.
It did not, however, mention currency manipulation.
Dan DiMicco, CEO at Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker, said the 14 measures are important, but the problem with China won’t be resolved until the United States takes on currency undervaluation. Here’s what he said:
“As long as we continue to let them get away with it, they’ll keep doing it.”
Six days later, in a trade case filed by the U.S. Aluminum Extrusions Fair Trade Committee, a coalition of domestic manufacturers of aluminum extrusions and the USW, the Commerce Department again squirmed out of dealing with currency manipulation.
Commerce imposed import duties on Chinese aluminum companies because China unfairly subsidized $514 million in aluminum exports to the U.S. in 2009. But Commerce refused to investigate the Fair Trade Committee’s evidence that China’s currency manipulation functions as an additional illegal export subsidy.
Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, a sponsor of currency manipulation legislation, said afterward:
“The Commerce Department made its finding while still managing to ignore the elephant in the room, which is China’s currency manipulation.”
Commerce and Treasury have decided the proper response to China flipping off America is averting their eyes. See no evil.
Yesterday Japan followed China’s lead. It bought dollars and sold yen, decreasing the value of yen and increasing the value of dollars. This, the New York Times explained, was “a bid to protect its export-led economy.” That’s exactly what China is doing.
It’s a very public show of contempt for international regulations and for American citizens.
Normally, Americans don’t respond passively to contempt. Be normal, America.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF BEAUTY
A young and pretty lady posted this on a popular forum:
Title: What should I do to marry a rich guy?
I'm going to be honest of what I'm going to say here. I'm 25 this year. I'm very pretty, have style and good taste. I wish to marry a guy with $500k annual salary or above. You might say that I'm greedy, but an annual salary of $1M is considered only as middle class in New York. My requirement is not high. Is there anyone in this forum who has an income of $500k annual salary? Are you all married? I wanted to ask: what should I do to marry rich persons like you? Among those I've dated, the richest is $250k annual income, and it seems that this is my upper limit. If someone is going to move into high cost residential area on the west of New York City Garden (?), $250k annual income is not enough.
I'm here humbly to ask a few questions:
1) Where do most rich bachelors hang out? (Please list down the names and addresses of bars, restaurant, and gym)
2) Which age group should I target?
3) Why most wives of the riches is only average-looking? I've met a few girls who don't have looks and are not interesting, but they are able to marry rich guys
4) How do you decide who can be your wife, and who can only be your girlfriend? (My target now is to get married)
Ms. Pretty
Here's a reply from a Wall Street Financial guy:
Dear Ms. Pretty,
I have read your post with great interest. Guess there are lots of girls out there who have similar questions like yours. Please allow me to analyze your situation as a professional investor. My annual income is more than $500k, which meets your requirement, so I hope everyone believes that I'm not wasting time here. From the standpoint of a business person, it is a bad decision to marry you. The answer is very simple, so let me explain. Put the details aside, what you're trying to do is an exchange of "beauty" and "money": Person A provides beauty, and Person B pays for it, fair and square. However, there's a deadly problem here, your beauty will fade, but my money will not be gone without any good reason. The fact is, my income might increase from year to year, but you can't be prettier year after year. Hence from the viewpoint of economics, I am an appreciation asset, and you are a depreciation asset. It's not just normal depreciation, but exponential depreciation. If that is your only asset, your value will be much worried 10 years later.
By the terms we use in Wall Street, every trading has a position, dating with you is also a "trading position". If the trade value dropped we will sell it and it is not a good idea to keep it for long term – same goes with the marriage that you wanted. It might be cruel to say this, but in order to make a wiser decision any assets with great depreciation value will be sold or "leased". Anyone with over $500k annual income is not a fool; we would only date you, but will not marry you. I would advice that you forget looking for any clues to marry a rich guy. And by the way, you could make yourself to become a rich person with $500k annual income. This has better chance than finding a rich fool.
Hope this reply helps. If you are interested in "leasing" services, do contact me…
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